• Call us via: (541) 275-1148

/
    • A couple weeks back I was talking to a few Realtors about how things were trending in their world said that July was a bit of a slower paced month than the previous months leading up to it. Not much of a surprise really. Spring has typically been a very busy time of year for both buyers and sellers. However, I did find it interesting that both mentioned some good Price Cuts on their listings. Several homes that were in that $340k-$380k range had even taken down their prices by almost 8%. Perhaps this was just the result of some Sellers simply throwing a high number at the market to see if any Buyers would bite? Prices have been trending higher for quite sometime at a pace exceedingly higher than wage growth.

      Mortgage rate trends as reflected by a Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed, that the average 30yr Fixed mortgage spiked up from 3.95% on 1/4/18 to 4.66% by 5/24/18. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ On a $275k mortgage, the increase of the rate would have a buyer paying an extra $162.71 of interest per month in their payment. I’d suspect that this has factored into home prices nationally.

      Between the months of June and July, Zillow reports that the average Median Zestimate for Lane County (an estimate of value based on recent home sales and listings) 2.8% drop. Still it would appear that YOY, even after the decline, Lane County median home prices are still up a little over 5%. Other markets in California and places like Seattle have actually started trending downward much sooner than Lane County, where they they’ve seen sharper increases. https://www.zillow.com/lane-county-or/home-values/

      Is Lane County starting to head into a Cooling housing market, or even a correction? There isn’t enough data out yet but my guess is that we are just starting a cooling off phase. After all, housing is still in limited supply and builders still aren’t building enough to keep up with demand. However, is a Cooling housing market all that bad? I personally don’t think so. I’d much rather see house prices cool off a bit to make room for more reasonable affordability, than see a steep drop after an exceptional run up.

      Back at the first part of 2018, I made some predictions in my blog about where things were heading on interest rates and appreciation, looks like I’m hitting the mark on both so far, https://oregonsms.com/magic-8-ball-predictions-jobs-income-and-housing-for-2018/